Swine Flu – this could be bad

Swine flu has just hit the news in a big way. Let’s start with some facts, then move on to some speculation.

According to the ABC, WHO has declared Swine flu an ‘international public health emergency’. Mexico’s official figures are 81 dead and 1300 infected.

That, in itself, wouldn’t have me worried.

But it’s clearly already crossed the board to America in quite a large way, according to the UK Telegraph:

The disease has already spread to the United States and eight children in New York, two people in Kansas and eight more in California have reportedly been infected by the virus.

That’s quite a lot of confirmed cases over a large geographical spread.  And the problem with a virus being in America is that there is A LOT of international air travel from America.

International air travel may have already spread the virus to New Zealand and the UK:

A New Zealand school group has been quarantined after returning from Mexico with flu-like symptoms, local news media reported on Sunday quoting local health authorities.

Three teachers and 22 senior students from Rangitoto College in Auckland, arrived back in the country on Saturday after a three-week trip to Mexico, according to the reports.

And in London a member of a British Airways cabin crew was taken to hospital with “flu-like symptoms” after falling ill on a flight from Mexico City to Heathrow.

So now let’s move on to some speculation from less reliable sources. I bumped into this report:

I’m a doctor in Mexico City, people here are sort of concerned, calling it the end of the world. I’ve read most of the articles floating around and, I’m sorry to say, the situation is being covered up.

I work at one of the public hospitals in the state of Mexico. On Friday, in our hospital alone, we had 32 deaths attributed to this, and today it was 28 deaths by 3 pm,when my shift ended. This is only in one hospital out of several. We have converted the ICU into an isolation area. since there are many people coming in with initial symptoms.

I would also like to share with you the history of the disease. People who die do so about 5 days after initial symptoms. Also, i want to add the fact that patients are presenting hemoptysis, which means coughing up blood -this has not previously been a symptom of influenza.

There is definitely cause to be concerned, and by the looks of it, this could spread quickly. I am actually taking antiviral profilaxis with oseltamavir, hopefully that will keep me safe. I go back to the hospital on Monday, wish me luck!

Naturally that could be fake. But it’s relatively likely that Mexican authorities are not accurately reporting the scale of the problem. International students have reported that universities have been closed by authorities.

Perhaps it’s time to close some boarders and see how this plays out?

He’s a witch – burn him!

I’ve often argued that ‘child pornography’ is the 21st century’s moral panic. It gets a vast amount of column inches for something which is only tangentially harmful. (That is, the egregious crime is child abuse. The argument that demand for child pornography causes increased creation of child pornography is not supported by evidence. No one thinks that entrepreneurs are out their filling such gaps in the black market.) The crime is extended far beyond the justifiable scope. (That is, clearly harmless humorous cartoons of The Simpsons have been ruled child pornography along with Japanese cartoons.) People are found guilty without trial. (That is, the mere accusation will end a career – no conviction required.) etc etc

ABC news today ups the ante:

Sokaluk is accused of starting the Churchill-Jerralang fires in Gippsland which killed 11 people.

Sokaluk is facing charges of arson causing death, intentionally lighting a bushfire and a count of possessing child pornography.

Wait what? Possessing child pornography?

At least five Facebook groups have been started by members, calling for violent punishment for 39-year-old Brendan Sokaluk.

The groups also label him an arsonist and “pedo”.

However, the groups are in breach of court order prohibiting the publication of photos of the accused.

Some comments posted by Facebook users make threats against Sokaluk’s life and call for victims of the bushfires to take the law into their own hands.

One comment read “That mother f***er should hang by his toes and rot”, and another says “burn him!”.

This sort of behaviour must be considered unacceptable! If the accusations are true, then sure he’s a pretty fucked up guy. But we don’t torture people because they’re screwed up. And we don’t deem people screwed up on the basis of an accusation. How is this bloke going to get a fair trial when he’s up on these charges in this media environment?

I wonder about Australia’s sense of justice at times.

Pat Condell on the prosecution of Geert Wilders

You’ll recall my recent post about the prosecution of Geert Wilders. Predictably enough, our favourite youtube-star has picked up the story in a video I mostly endorse. Very much worth a watch:

Pat also provides some useful links in the side-bar if you click through to his video.

The great escape – turn in to a goat!

I bumped into this ABC news story, which is highly amusing and with a whiff of a moral:

Police in Nigeria are holding a goat on suspicion of attempted armed robbery.

Vigilantes took the black and white beast to the police saying it was an armed robber who had used black magic to transform himself into a goat to escape arrest after trying to steal a Mazda 323.

“The group of vigilante men came to report that while they were on patrol they saw some hoodlums attempting to rob a car,” Kwara state police spokesman Tunde Mohammed told Reuters by telephone.

“They pursued them. However one of them escaped while the other turned into a goat.

“We cannot confirm the story, but the goat is in our custody. We cannot base our information on something mystical. It is something that has to be proved scientifically, that a human being turned into a goat.”

Belief in witchcraft is widespread in parts of Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation.

Residents came to the police station to see the goat, photographed in one national newspaper on its knees next to a pile of straw.

The prosecution of Geert Wilders

I don’t often find myself running to the defense of ‘extreme right’ politicians – but this news story presses all my button. I’d recommend the BBC news story here, or the ABC here, or a blog here if you want to know more.

The gist is that Wilders is a Dutch MP concerned about the Islamification of Europe. He makes ‘radical’ statements about Islam,  including a video called Fitna, which essentially calls Islam a violent religion. The Dutch Director of Public Prosecutions had decided that Wilders was engaging in legitimate public and political discourse, hence it would not bring charges. Now a Dutch court has overturned the DPP decision and the prosecution will go ahead.

My law honours thesis was written largely on this topic, so if you’ve got a couple of hours to invest – check out my thesis here.

Short of reading my thesis, let’s take a look at why people should be free to express their views on these subjects.

Atheist buses

News readers would be aware that atheists are fighting back against the faithful drones with bus advertising campaigns. The most famous is just about to start on London buses with slogans saying:

One word stands out here. You guessed it, ‘probably’. Apparently that word was required by UK advertising standards because the lack of existence of god isn’t certain. You’ve got be kidding, right? Perhaps it’s technically true that some versions of god (certainly not any of the monotheisms) can’t be disproved deductively. So, despite all evidence being to the contrary, it is possible that god exists. But if you caveat that, you have to caveat EVERYTHING. My shirt, ‘probably made in china’ ‘McDonald’s, probably in 10km’ ‘this weekend only, probably half price’. Ridiculous.

But it gets worse. The UK telegraph picks up the story which Australia seems to have entirely missed.

Storm – Tim Minchin

Probably should edit this post to make it clear that I didn’t write the poem below. But I think it’s brilliant. Even better live. So Google up Tim Minchin, check out his website, and buy tickets to his live show!

“Storm”

Inner North London, top floor flat
All white walls, white carpet, white cat,
Rice Paper partitions
Modern art and ambition
The host’s a physician,
Lovely bloke, has his own practice
His girlfriend’s an actress
An old mate from home
And they’re always great fun.
So to dinner we’ve come.

Evolutionary medicine and the placebo effect

I’ve got the flu, and have taken a passing interest in something called ‘evolutionary medicine’ or ‘Darwinian medicine’ and its explanation of the placebo effect.

When we’re sick the symptoms that we experience, such as pain, fever and coughs are often not the work of the disease itself, but rather the bodies reactions to fight the disease. Raising body temperature during a fever attempts to inhibit the replication of the virus or bacteria. Pain is the body’s mechanism to encourage the mind to protect the area in pain. So, if we roll an ankle, the pain encourages us to limp or not walk to give the ankle time to heal.

The mechanisms are evolved responses, however, they (and the immune system generally) will not kick in unless the benefit outweighs the potential cost. It’s well documented that a woman in late-term pregnancy will never have a fever. The harm to the baby does not, in evolutionary terms, justify the benefit of slowing the multiplication of the infection.

Awareness, experience and animals

I’ve just got back from my road trip, hence the lack of posts. Had a good time and met some interesting people. One of these interesting people was a certain Lauren who advocated strongly for the better treatment of animals. My modus operandi, having had the animals rights argument more times than I care to remember, is to dismiss anyone who brings it up as either a fool or a popularist. The position of the average ethical vegan is so absurd and unsophisticated that the only thing to be gained from engaging in the debate is frustration.

But this Lauren was neither a fool or a popularist. So i ended up vexing my brain on the topic during the drive home trying to think of a new (for me) argument against the position.

The moral vegan’s position

In brief, the position of the moral vegan is that:

1) Animals are analogous to humans as moral actors in that they are ‘conscious’ or similar

2) farming practices are evil, exploitative, induce suffering etc

3) It is immoral for one moral actor to be bad towards another moral actor

therefore

4) We ought not consume animals or their products because it supports immorality.

Knowledge is dangerous – ban knowledge!

We’re all aware of the recent terrorist attacks in Mumbai. As details emerge we learn that the gunmen used a ‘complex GPS systems to navigate to Mumbai by sea’ while communicating  with mobile phones, satellite phones and web browsing on Blackberrys – says news.com.

Google earth seems have been a useful part of that strategy. Anyone who has driven through a new city will know the navigational and planning utility of Google earth and Google street view. In the Mumbai terrorist attacks, that was used for ill.

The issue is that the Bombay High Court has been petitioned to ban Google earth because it “aids terrorists in plotting attacks”. That may be true, but banning it for that reason is mindbogglingly stupid. If I was a wowser, I’d say that ‘it’s letting the terrorists win.’ The moral of the story is that people uninformed and ignorant about new technology will seek to ban and limit it at the first sign of a problem. Are they saying we should ban mobile phones because they were used to communicate? No. Probably because judges and law makers understand the utility and functionality of mobile phones.

We must stop law-makers and courts, in Australia and across the world, fucking up our future because they don’t understand it.